Von der Guerilla zur Partei

How do rebels become political actors – and why does this transition so often fail? This study demonstrates that successful transformations depend on understanding and strategically engaging the interaction of key actors involved. Drawing on the case of Colombian guerrilla movements, it develops the “Bullet-to-Ballot” model, which systematically captures key conditions, dynamics, and causal mechanisms while also accounting for legal and illegal obstacles as well as potential spoilers of the process. By combining theoretical innovation with empirical analysis, the study provides transferable insights for peacebuilding and political transformation processes worldwide.